Do high-yield bonds do well in recession?
Recession: High yield bonds tend to be susceptible to recessionary environments as economic downturns typically result in lower economic activity and make it more difficult for high yield issuers to service their debt.
The big deal with high-yield corporate bonds is that when a recession hits, the companies issuing these are the first to go. However, some companies that don't have an investment-grade rating on their bonds are recession-resistant because they boom at such times.
Government bonds are considered the safest type of bond, as they are backed by the full faith and credit of the issuing government. They are an attractive option during a recession due to their safety and reliability.
A high-yield corporate bond is a type of corporate bond that offers a higher rate of interest because of its higher risk of default. When companies with a greater estimated default risk issue bonds, they may be unable to obtain an investment-grade bond credit rating.
I bonds can be useful additions to an investment portfolio as low-risk assets that provide guaranteed returns and help hedge against inflation. They offer a haven during times of market volatility or high inflation, as their interest rates are adjusted based on changes in the CPI.
Investors favor Treasury bonds during a recession because they're considered to be a safe investment. Purchasing a bond issued by the Federal Reserve Bank means that you're lending money to the US government.
As investors start to anticipate a recession, they may flee to the relative safety of bonds. Typically, they're expecting the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, helping to keep bond prices up. So going into a recession may be an attractive time to purchase bonds if rates haven't yet fallen.
Where to put money during a recession. Putting money in savings accounts, money market accounts, and CDs keeps your money safe in an FDIC-insured bank account (or NCUA-insured credit union account). Alternatively, invest in the stock market with a broker.
Do Bonds Lose Money in a Recession? Bonds can perform well in a recession as investors tend to flock to bonds rather than stocks in times of economic downturns. This is because stocks are riskier as they are more volatile when markets are not doing well.
A better strategy is to shift into investments that are well-positioned to weather a recession. This is why keeping a certain part of your portfolio in cash or highly liquid securities, like a money market mutual fund, is always wise.
When should I buy high-yield bonds?
High-yield bonds tend to perform best when growth trends are favorable, investors are confident, defaults are low or falling, and yield spreads provide room for added appreciation.
Investors looking to capture additional yield may be attracted to the high-yield bond market, where average yields are around 9 percent as of October 2023. But both Martin and Linenger suggest investors exercise caution when it comes to these bonds of risky borrowers.
Looking at the asset class's historical performance leads us to believe that high yield is poised to produce a positive return in 2024, albeit not as robust as that experienced in 2023. We believe that the economy is not rolling over and that a recession is likely to be at least six months away.
Create passive income sources
Another way people can make money during recessions is by figuring out ways to increase their personal income through passive sources like dividends, interest, and income from renting out unused space, property, or goods.
If you are a longer-term investor looking for ultimate safety and protection from inflation, you are going to want to buy U.S. Series I Savings Bonds in 2024, up to the $10,000 per person limit and possibly more.
| Face Value | Purchase Amount | 30-Year Value (Purchased May 1990) |
|---|---|---|
| $50 Bond | $100 | $207.36 |
| $100 Bond | $200 | $414.72 |
| $500 Bond | $400 | $1,036.80 |
| $1,000 Bond | $800 | $2,073.60 |
The phrase means that having liquid funds available can be vital because of the flexibility it provides during a crisis. While cash investments -- such as a money market fund, savings account, or bank CD -- don't often yield much, having cash on hand can be invaluable in times of financial uncertainty.
Yields on high-quality bonds have risen back to around their historically normal levels. Higher yields enable bonds to once again play their traditional role as sources of reliable, low-risk income for investors who buy and hold them to maturity.
Bonds offer a fixed, predictable income from interest. They are also more liquid and may see greater returns than CDs. However, if you're looking for a highly secure and easy way to earn interest, CDs may be more suitable to your goals.
Most stocks and high-yield bonds tend to lose value in a recession, while lower-risk assets—such as gold and U.S. Treasuries—tend to appreciate.
Why is my bond fund losing money?
Interest rate changes are the primary culprit when bond exchange-traded funds (ETFs) lose value. As interest rates rise, the prices of existing bonds fall, which impacts the value of the ETFs holding these assets.
Many people who owned stocks that went down a lot would have been OK eventually, except they bought on margin and were ruined. The best performing investments during the Depression were government bonds (many corporations stopped paying interest on their bonds) and annuities.
CDs are primarily a safe investment. They are guaranteed by the bank to return the principal and interest earned at maturity. CDs can provide modest income during turbulent economic times like recessions when other types of investments often lose value.
Generally, money kept in a bank account is safe—even during a recession. However, depending on factors such as your balance amount and the type of account, your money might not be completely protected. For instance, Silicon Valley Bank likely had billions of dollars in uninsured deposits at the time of its collapse.
Typically, personal finance experts recommend you save three to six months of expenses in an emergency fund. Personally, I advocate for individuals to save six to 12 months of expenses. To determine an appropriate amount to save, you should consider your family needs, job stability, and fixed expenses.
