Is China in a bad debt?
NEW DELHI: China is grappling with an economic slowdown exacerbated by a significant rise in personal debt, which has surged by 50% in the past five years to approximately $11 trillion.
China is in the midst of a profound economic crisis. Growth rates are flagging as an unsustainable mountain of debt piles up; China's debt-to-GDP ratio reached a record 288% in 2023.
China's economy is at a turning point. An old economic model underpinned by heavy investment in infrastructure and real estate is crumbling. Growth is slowing and prices are falling, raising the specter of a Japan-style slide into stagnation. How did the world's second-largest economy get into such a mess?
| Characteristic | National debt in relation to GDP |
|---|---|
| Macao SAR | 0% |
| Brunei Darussalam | 2.06% |
| Kuwait | 3.08% |
| Hong Kong SAR | 4.27% |
At the top is Japan, whose national debt has remained above 100% of its GDP for two decades, reaching 255% in 2023.
Debt as a share of GDP has risen to about the same level as in the United States, while in dollar terms China's total debt ($47.5 trillion) is still markedly below that of the United States (close to $70 trillion). As for non-financial corporate debt, China's 28 percent share is the largest in the world.
Though China owns a large amount of U.S. debt, it isn't the United States's largest creditor. The greatest amount of U.S. debt is owned by the U.S. government, while the largest foreign creditor is Japan. China owns around 2.6% of U.S. debt, which it buys because the Chinese yuan is pegged to the dollar.
Most of this debt came from building infrastructure, much of which is unlikely to generate revenues sufficient to pay off the obligations. With China's trend growth rate notably lower now than it was, it leaves a burden over the long haul.
Since China began to open up and reform its economy in 1978, GDP growth has averaged over 9 percent a year, and almost 800 million people have lifted themselves out of poverty. There have also been significant improvements in access to health, education, and other services over the same period.
China's economy has yoyoed in the past few years, with growth ranging from 2.2% in 2020 to 8.4% in 2021 and 3% last year. Stringent limits on travel and other activities during the pandemic hit manufacturing and transport.
How much does the US owe China?
In total, other territories hold about $7.4 trillion in U.S. debt. Japan owns the most at $1.1 trillion, followed by China, with $859 billion, and the United Kingdom at $668 billion. In isolation, this $7.4 trillion amount is a lot, said Scott Morris, a senior fellow at the Center for Global Development.
[2] A report by the credit rating agency S&P Global in 2022 estimated that 79 per cent of corporate debt in China was owed by SOEs (the IMF does not break down the proportion of debt owed by SOEs).
Of course, just as with an individual or family, cutting spending and increasing revenue are smart first steps. Beyond that, the government considers things like new taxes, a higher retirement age, removing loopholes from the tax code, and more to reduce annual deficits and the national debt.
Japan and China have been the largest foreign holders of US debt for the last two decades. Japan and China held almost 50% of all foreign-owned US debt between 2004 and 2006. However, this has declined over time, and as of 2022 they controlled approximately 25% of foreign-owned debt.
It began rising at a fast rate in the 1980's and was accelerated through events like the Iraq Wars and the 2008 Great Recession. Most recently, the debt made another big jump thanks to the pandemic with the federal government spending significantly more than it took in to keep the country running.
- Japan. Japan held $1.15 trillion in Treasury securities as of January 2024, beating out China as the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt. ...
- China. China gets a lot of attention for holding a big chunk of the U.S. government's debt. ...
- The United Kingdom. ...
- Luxembourg. ...
- Canada.
The value of U.S. Treasury securities held by residents of Russia amounted to 33 million U.S. dollars in June 2023, the lowest over the period under consideration. Furthermore, in March 2020, the figure decreased sharply to 3.85 billion U.S. dollars, down from 12.6 billion U.S. dollars one month prior.
China owns 384,000 acres of American agricultural land. That's a 30% increase just since 2019. And on top of that, they own land near an air force base in North Dakota.
If China (or any other nation that has a trade surplus with the U.S.) stops buying U.S. Treasuries or even starts dumping its U.S. forex reserves, its trade surplus would become a trade deficit—something which no export-oriented economy would want, as they would be worse off as a result.
As a result, if the United States and other countries were to stop trading with China, it would disrupt global supply chains and cause economic disruptions in many countries.
How much is China worth?
| Country | Economy |
|---|---|
| United States | $25.347 trillion |
| China | $19.91 trillion |
| Japan | $5.396 trillion |
| Germany | $4.55 trillion |
Related information about Russia Government Debt: % of GDP
In the latest reports, Russia National Government Debt reached 285.4 USD bn in Dec 2023. The country's Nominal GDP reached 494.7 USD bn in Mar 2023.
Consistent with these observations, we show that the timing of China's overtaking will be determined by the pace of US and Chinese nominal GDP growth and moves in the bilateral exchange rate. For a range of plausible assumptions, we find that overtaking occurs during the 2030s, most likely in the middle of the decade.
In 2022, the IMF judged the Chinese economy in PPP terms to be 23% larger than America. At the same time, using PPP data the World Bank estimated the Chinese economy to be 18.8% larger than America. And even the CIA considered the differential in favour of China at 16%.
Measured at market exchange rates, China's GDP was $18.3 trillion in 2022, 73 percent of the GDP of the United States and 10 times more than the 7 percent of US GDP it registered in 1990.
